FanBoardHQ

Oregon State

Oregon State University · 2025 · Pac-12

FanBoardHQ CFP
#127
Efficiency
-13.5
113th FBS
Record
2-10
Conf. record
1-1
Conf. finish
T-1st
of 2
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Oregon State went 2-10 and was ranked 127th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 83rd-ranked defense carried them, with a 123rd-ranked offense. They passed the ball on 52% of offensive plays with a 108th-ranked passing attack and ran the ball on the remaining 48% of plays with an 116th-ranked rushing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-2
Q2
0-1
Q3
1-2
Q4
1-5

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 2.0 wins
Strength of Record
129th
-6.7 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
69th
full season
69th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
1st
a 25th-ranked team would win ~1.4 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs CaliforniaACC#77L 1534-6.40%-29.4Q4
2vs Fresno StateMountain West#66L 2736-4.40%-8.3Q4
3@ Texas TechBig 12#8L 1445-41.70%-6.6Q1
4@ OregonBig Ten#2L 741-41.90%-3.2Q1
5vs HoustonBig 12#28L 2427-17.70%3.6Q3
6@ Appalachian StateSun Belt#110L 2327-1.70%-14.8Q4
7vs Wake ForestACC#43L 1439-14.60%-25.2Q3
8vs LafayettePatriotW 4513+11.7100%0.6Q4
10vs Washington StatePac-12#56W 107-15.4100%5.1Q3
11vs Sam HoustonConference USA#133L 1721+16.00%-28.9Q4
12@ TulsaAmerican Athletic#109L 1431-6.70%-33.3Q4
14@ Washington StatePac-12#56L 832-20.90%-22.4Q2

12 played · 2-10. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Oregon State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-30.3-14.1+2.0-29-8-7-34-15-2515-29-33-22Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 108th
SR 90thYPP 109thEPA 117th
RushingEff 116th
SR 107thYPP 118thEPA 121st
Defense
Pass defenseEff 97th
SR 41stYPP 112thEPA 118th
Rush defenseEff 45th
SR 52ndYPP 47thEPA 37th
Dropback rate 52%Tempo -2.2 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 46th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 46%1st · Defense allowed: 42%1st2nd · Offense: 42%2nd · Defense allowed: 40%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 38%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 36%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 34.0Q1 · Allowed: 93.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 54.0Q2 · Allowed: 95.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 45.0Q3 · Allowed: 58.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 91.0Q4 · Allowed: 71.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledOregon StateOffenseDefense
Oregon State Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 123rd
-9.7
Field position: -2.0Finishing drives: -7.8
Field position -2.0Finishing drives -7.8= -9.7
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 127th · Finishing 121st

Defensive EffRanked 83rd
-2.3
Field position: -2.2Finishing drives: -0.2
Field position -2.2Finishing drives -0.2= -2.3
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 125th · Finishing 69th

1.35 points per drive on offense, 2.13 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 28.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(196)49% / 51%37%4.4
Q2(227)56% / 44%44%4.9
Q3(177)58% / 42%43%5.5
Q4(236)56% / 44%46%6.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(180)10.354%7.5
2nd(140)9.037%4.8
3rd(122)8.430%4.7
4th(16)5.238%3.2
All (458)42%5.8
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(189)9.738%4.8
2nd(133)6.447%5.0
3rd(50)4.160%3.6
4th(6)3.833%-2.0
All (378)44%4.6

Oregon State, all games.